Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money on your next venture? Or which of many decision options is most likely to yield the best payoff? How about the best sequential drilling strategy? Or how much to invest in various projects in order to maximize the return on your project portfolio??
Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can answer these questions and more ? right in your Excel spreadsheet.
The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that runs in Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
New XDK Functionality and Documentation
@RISK, PrecisionTree, Evolver, StatTools, and NeuralTools offer an Excel Developer’s Kit (XDK), which allows you to automate and customize the tool within Excel using Excel’s built-in VBA programming language. The XDK for @RISK has been updated to include new functionality for the automation of @RISK graphs and simulation filters, as well as several additional improvements. For all products, the XDK now includes a new “Automation Guide” to help you get started quickly. In addition, new videos and example files have been added to all XDKs to help you use this powerful feature.
Improved Simulation Startup Time for Project Models
The time required to initialize a simulation of models from Microsoft Project has been dramatically reduced for most cases. The improvement is most significant in models with many tasks.
Click on a tab below to learn more about each product in the Suite.
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@RISK performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet—and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
@RISK and TopRank
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
@RISK and PrecisionTree
In addition, @RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.
@RISK then StatTools
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.
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PrecisionTree performs decision analysis in Microsoft Excel using decision trees and influence diagrams. Decision trees let you visually map out complex, multi-layered decisions in a sequential, organized manner. This helps you identify all possible alternatives and choose the best option.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
PrecisionTree and @RISK
PrecisionTree represents chance events and payoffs with discrete values or probabilities. When combined with @RISK, @RISK enhances the analysis by representing continuous ranges of outcomes for chance events and payoffs.
PrecisionTree and TopRank
PrecisionTree models can also be run with TopRank to identify the most critical factors in larger, more complex tree models.
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TopRank performs automated “ what if ” sensitivity analysis on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. You can define any output or “ bottom line ” cell or cells, and TopRank will automatically find and vary all input cells which affect your output. The end result is identification and ranking of all input factors which affect your bottom line.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
TopRank then @RISK
TopRank is useful for narrowing down the focus of large models before performing a risk analysis with @RISK. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. In addition, TopRank can use @RISK to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
TopRank and PrecisionTree
TopRank can also be run with PrecisionTree models to identify the most critical factors in larger, more complex tree models.
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NeuralTools performs predictions in Microsoft Excel using sophisticated neural networks. NeuralTools imitates brain functions to “ learn ” patterns in your known data, and uses those patterns to make predictions from new, incomplete data. In addition, NeuralTools can automatically update predictions live when input data changes, saving time and enabling more robust analyses.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
NeuralTools and Evolver
Combine NeuralTools with Evolver to optimize complex problems. Set Evolver’s target goal as the live predictive output for NeuralTools, and the cells for Evolver to adjust as the new inputs for NeuralTools. Then watch Evolver and NeuralTools work together to predict the optimal solution.
NeuralTools and RISKOptimizer
You could even run NeuralTools in conjunction with RISKOptimizer, running Monte Carlo simulations on each trial solution and making live predictions of the results.
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StatTools performs forecasting and statistical analysis in Microsoft Excel. It actually replaces Excel’s built-in statistics functions with its own, more robust and accurate functions. StatTools covers the most common statistical analyses, and even allows you to build your own custom statistical procedures.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
StatTools and @RISK then RISKOptimizer
Combine StatTools with @RISK to assess confidence intervals on simulation results. You can also apply @RISK functions to StatTools forecast results to simulate possible outcomes with more precision than the deterministic analysis alone. Run RISKOptimizer on your model using the same @RISK functions in order to find the best combination of factors to maximize your forecasted profits.
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Evolver performs optimization in Microsoft Excel using genetic algorithms, linear programming, or the OptQuest solving methods. It is equally suited to finding the best solution to linear problems large and small, or to finding the best overall global solution to nonlinear, complex problems where other solvers fail. Evolver constantly tries new, different solutions to arrive at the best answer possible.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
Evolver then NeuralTools
Combine Evolver with NeuralTools to optimize complex problems with live neural network prediction. Set Evolver’s target goal as the live predictive output for NeuralTools, and the cells for Evolver to adjust as the new inputs for NeuralTools. Then watch Evolver and NeuralTools work together to predict the optimal solution.
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RISKOptimizer uses genetic algorithms or OptQuest methods, along with Monte Carlo simulation, to solve optimization problems under uncertainty. Take any optimization problem and replace uncertain values with @RISK functions that represent ranges of possible values. RISKOptimizer will try different combinations of adjustable cells to achieve the goal you define, while running Monte Carlo simulations on each trial solution to account for inherent uncertainty. The result is the most robust, accurate solution possible.
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.
RISKOptimizer and @RISK
Run RISKOptimizer on an existing @RISK model to maximize your profits, minimize your costs, or achieve a particular target. RISKOptimizer uses all the same functions as @RISK.
RISKOptimizer and StatTools
You could run a RISKOptimizer analysis on the results from a StatTools forecast, applying @RISK functions to the forecasted values while adjusting controllable factors to maximize total profits.
RISKOptimizer and NeuralTools
Even combine RISKOptimizer with NeuralTools to make live predictions on each trial solution.
The DecisionTools Suite is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from The DecisionTools Suite.
INDUSTRY
FINANCE AND SECURITIES
Models
Case Studies
INSURANCE / REINSURANCE
Models
Case Studies
MANUFACTURING
Case Studies
OIL / GAS / ENERGY
Models
Case Studies
PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE
Case Studies
ENVIRONMENT
Case Studies
GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE
Case Studies
AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION
Case Studies
SAMPLE APPLICATION
Retirement planning
Currency valuation
Real options analysis
Discounted Cash Flow analysis
Value-at-risk
Portfolio optimization
Loss reserves estimation
Premium pricing
Six Sigma and quality analysis
New product analysis
Production siting
Plant shutdown
Product life cycle analysis
Six Sigma and quality analysis
Exploration and production
Oil reserves estimation
Capital project estimation
Pricing
Regulation compliance
New product analysis
R&D estimation
Disease infection estimation
Endangered species preservation
Pollution cleanup and projections
Resource allocation
War games
Welfare and budgetary projections
Cost estimating
Highway planning and optimization
Supply chain distribution
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The DecisionTools Suite integrates completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze – while never leaving Excel. All DecisionTools Suite functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. Windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. Graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and intuitive toolbars make learning and navigating DecisionTools Suite a snap.
FEATURES
See all possible outcomes with Monte Carlo simulation
Map out decisions with decision trees and influence diagrams
Works in Excel
Genetic algorithms and OptQuest optimization methods
Linear Programming solving methods
Sensitivity or What-If Analysis
Distribution viewing and fitting
Presentation-quality graphs and reports
Full integration between programs
Parallel processing
Bundle pricing
BENEFITS
Avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities in @RISK or PrecisionTree models
Identify and illustrate the best alternative
No need to learn new applications from scratch
Solve complex, nonlinear problems involving uncertainty
Solve linear problems – both large and small – quickly and accurately
Identify the most important variables in @RISK or PrecisionTree models
Accurate description of uncertainty
Easily explain results and recommendations to others
Easily install and migrate between component tools; apply analyses from one tool to another tool’s model for greater insight
Speed up large Monte Carlo simulations by using available CPUs within a single machine
Save money compared to buying products separately
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The DecisionTools Suite is available through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network, and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of your investment.
@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results—and fast—using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite!
COMPATIBILITY: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software is compatible with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows XP-8, Excel 2003-2013, and Project 2003-2013.
64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools software to access much more computer memory than ever before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.
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